Comments on: AVEO - More open questions than answers

By: Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 06:10:53 +0000

Not following it closely. They seem to build a diverse early stage pipeline to complement fostamatinib.

Ohad

By: oasis

oasis — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 03:22:37 +0000

Ohad, are you interested in Rigel this year?

By: Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 11:22:18 +0000

David- remember we’re talking about subgroup analysis from a phase II. You might be right if this were a p3 data set.

Heymang - The current price level fully represents the ALL opportunity pursued with the 2 ongoing ALL trials as well as the DLBCL opportunity to some extent. DLBCL is a much larger indication but the data are still preliminary (albeit very promsing). Assuming activity in DLBCL continues to impress, I see the stock in the $10-$12 range, which is just over $1B in market cap. To go beyond those levels they will need additional catalysts imo.

Ohad

By: Heymang

Heymang — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 21:36:11 +0000

Ohad,

Thanks for your hard work. MITI has started to really move to the upside. Do you think they could do another secondary or is a buyout a possibility? Do you have a price target to unload some shares??

Thanks

Heymang

By: David

David — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 20:30:42 +0000

Fair enough and I understand that government agency can go completely against their previous guidance but if it were approval on a PFS primary endpoint, why would the EU suddenly decide to change its mind and now require OS? Again, it could happen but I think with an enterprise value of $0 that outcome is more than baked into the PPS.

I also agree that P3 success is less likely but I personally think it will hit both PFS and OS but that is what makes a market.

Best.

By: Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 08:53:02 +0000

Theoretically, the p3 trial might still be successful but recent developments decrease the odds for such an outcome.

I don’t see anyone approving this drug based on the p2 data, even when all of the alleged imbalances are taken into consideration.

I am not saying I’ll never buy ECYT in the future, I just don’t see any reason holding the stock during 2012.

Ohad

By: David

David — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 03:07:53 +0000

How you say the odds of filing in the EU is zero, when they were going to file on PFS and NOT OS. So drugs can only be filed if they hit the primary and every secondary endpoint as well?

If you dig into the data there are pretty clear reasons why OS did not hit (not powered for OS, different populations, outliers) but that is beside the point as it still hit the primary endpoint in the FR++ group.

Of course, you are not alone in selling ECYT but I think you should be buying a company that hit its primary endpoint and is trading for less than cash rather than selling. It is just a very compelling risk/reward at these levels.

By: Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 06:09:39 +0000

In RCC they are more receptive towards PFS.

Ohad

By: provocateur

provocateur — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 02:59:46 +0000

I have a hard time with PFS data when the FDA , we know will demand OS Data