Comments on: Biotech Portfolio Updates – Buying More Genentech and Exelixis

By: James Joyce

James Joyce — Mon, 11 May 2009 20:13:03 +0000

A most informative guide on lung cancer, thank you, it has provided me with some comfort

By: Dren

Dren — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:36:23 +0000

Seems almost bizarre to read sophisticated biotech investing discussions that avoid mentioning the elephant in the room: nationalization of healthcare.

Expensive proposed therapies are what make many investors salivate. AND what make healthcare providers draw tight their purse strings, if they can, and the government very much can. The new USA government is said to have a “mandate for change”.

I realize that you are not necessarily political experts and admire you for sticking to where you have great knowledge, unlike so many investing analysts and commentators, both professional and amateur.

Still, should the vast potential change in the health care investing landscape at least be mentioned? Is the prospect of what could happen to biotech investing too frightening and hard to evaluate? Perhaps so, but then is some kind of disclaimer like “subject to massive healthcare reimbursement changes” possibly appropriate without boring the reader?

By: Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 21:27:12 +0000

Yes I did.
Very nice results, great PFS and DCR in this type of patient population.
Their ADC is definitely one of the most intriguing candidates in oncology, at least in my eyes.
I am not too enthusiastic about metastatic melanoma as an indication since it is a graveyard for investigational drugs, and there is only one candidate that I find investment worthy. I do think, however, that the breast cancer trial could be a game changer for CRGN.

I don’t want to get everybody’s (including myself…) expectations too high, but judging by the activity seen so far and the validation of GPNMB as a target, CR011 stands a real chance of being effective in 15-20% of breast cancer cases (most of whom don’t have a lot of effective therapies), so the potential is huge. Anyway, we’ll have to wait for results next year

ohad

By: Dan McGlinchey

Dan McGlinchey — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 20:29:51 +0000

Curagen -updated Phase II–have you looked at yet?

By: Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:57:54 +0000

Besides biotech I am also invested in other fields primarily through ETFs (ROM,QLD, EPI,UYG).

So far th small biotechs are not participating in the relief rally, which is understood given the high level of anxiety and the fact that the large companies were beaten so hard. The only thing that surprised me yesterday was DNA…

I guess people still don’t believe EXEL, IMGN MITI etc. when they say they can remain independent of the equity markets for 2 years, by licensing deals and cost cuts, if needed. I do!

By: Sami

Sami — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 04:07:12 +0000

Yes Ohad
I also want to ask same question…with dow and NASDAQ both up about 10%, still most of biotech stocks are in red…how do u co-relate the movement of healthcare sector with general stock market movement…
Thanks

By: paul

paul — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 21:46:16 +0000

Well Ohad, first off, very interesting article, I come across a lot of research material and you are definitely one of the best sources of information out there. Keep up the good work!

You made a great call when you wrote panic is nearing its end, but funnily enough neither DNA nor EXEL participated in today’s rally. Any reasons you can think of?
Besides that , do you personally hold non-biotech stocks as well, would love to read your thoughts on non- healthcare opportunities.

Thank you

By: Sami

Sami — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 12:02:59 +0000

Thanks Ohad for clarifying my doubts.

By: Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 11:15:44 +0000

I still think that a comapny like Exleixis should be traded substantially higher, but as you said, there is very little rationale in the markets at the moment.
I am particularly comfortable with respect to EXEL since it already made the necessary decisions and it won’t be long before the stock is impacted by these steps. The market is in a “show me the money” (literally) mode and I believe Exelixis will show us a lot of money in the coming 6 months. I also think we can put fears of dilution behind us, as management explicitly said they will remain independent of the equity markets at least through 2009.
10$ right now may sound like an imaginary price, but if only 2-3 compounds produce good data down the road, it is very likely we’ll see the stock at these levels already next summer.

ohad

By: Sami

Sami — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 10:51:52 +0000

Thanks for replying.
On sep 16th you said 8$ is a reasonable price target for year end but seeing the present financial crunch which will make it even more difficult to raise the much needed cash and recent events(poor Q3 performance and discontinuation of GSK) how do you value the stock now. Maybe for next 2-3 year hold. Do you think it will cross $10 in coming years?
The thing is market is riding on sentiments nowdays and people are really concerned about financial position of companies. On the other hand, i think it is the right time to enter EXEL because of its strong fundamentals..
opinions please…

By: Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 09:39:01 +0000

Thanks Sami

Although there is a great deal of overlap between my actual portfolio with this one, they are not fully correlated.

ohad

By: Sami

Sami — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 09:18:36 +0000

Hi Ohad
Really nice article.
One thing I wanted to clarify is that the model portfolio you have created, is this real money or fictitious.
thanks