Hammer Stock Blog

Immunogen (IMGN) is still trying to recuperate from the controversial rejection of T-DM1’s accelerated approval filing. The message Immunogen was trying to convey is that nothing has changed in terms of T-DM1’s long term potential. According to the company, the FDA’s problem was not with the drug’s stellar activity but the patient population enrolled on the trial. In just over a week from now, it could have the data to prove it.

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The FDA’s decision to reject Roche’s filing for accelerated approval of T-DM1’s had quite an impact on Immunogen’s (IMGN) stock. There is no doubt that T-DM1 represents the company’s most valuable, even if it is in the form of a mid single digit royalty rate, due to its blockbuster potential and impressive clinical activity. This justifies to some extent last week’s market reaction, as the next potential approval for T-DM1 will is anticipated in mid 2012. Nevertheless, T-DM1 is facing multiple potential value creation events in the coming year, including an important data set for T-DM1 next month. In addition, the company is involved in 6 clinical stage programs (#7 is expected to enter the clinic this month), some of which are expected to generate data in the coming months. Although none of these programs are nearly as exciting as T-DM1, some of them could become more attractive with time.

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Last week, Roche announced that the FDA was unwilling to accept T-DM1’s accelerated approval filing for breast cancer, sending Immunogen’s (IMGN) shares tumbling almost 40%. The filing was based on impressive results from a single arm phase II trial in 3^rd line HER2 breast cancer. Typically, gaining regulatory approval requires a large, randomized phase III study but in cases of highly unmet need where patients are bereft of effective treatment options, the FDA may consider approval in a limited patient population.

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Yesterday Pfizer (PFE) announced that Sutent failed to prolong survival of lung cancer patients when given in combination with Tarceva. The drug led to an increase in progression free survival (PFS), which was the secondary endpoint of the study. The results are not published and there are several open questions such as the extent of PFS improvement, benefit across different subtypes and use of Sutent in patients from the placebo cohort after progressing on Tarceva. Nevertheless, chances to see Sutent+Tarceva  as a standard of care for 2^nd/3^rd  line NSCLC are slim.

Pfizer’s failure provided some clarity for Arqule (ARQL) and its partner Daiichi Sankyo, who plan to initiate a phase III study for ARQ-197 in combination with Tarceva. The indication Arqule is pursuing is very similar to that pursued by Pfizer, so had the Sutent trial been successful, it would have adversely affect ARQ-197’s prospects in general and potentially the required clinical route. (more…)

The hottest theme at this year’s 2010 ASCO (American Society of Clinical Oncology) annual meeting was without a doubt cancer immunotherapy, an old paradigm that deals with redirecting the patient’s immune system against tumors. After decades of failures, this concept is finally proving itself useful. There are basically two approaches:  1) cancer vaccines that aim at eliciting an immune response against specific targets on cancer cells and 2) immunomodulatory drugs that aim at stimulating the immune system in a more general manner (not target specific). The undisputed leader in cancer vaccines is Dendreon (DNDN), which currently has the only FDA approved cancer vaccine. Following ASCO, it looks like the leader in immunomodulation drugs is BMS (BMY).

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