A drug with an almost certain approval and immediate sales potential of hundreds of millions of dollars is an asset very few biotech companies possess. In that sense, Incyte (INCY), which is developing a breakthrough drug for blood disorders, represents a unique opportunity in an industry plagued by risk and uncertainty. Incyte is also unique in its problematic capital structure, which makes an otherwise simple investment decision into a tricky one.

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Last month at the ASCO meeting, Curagen (CRGN) presented results for its lead drug, CR-011, in breast cancer and melanoma patients. CR011 had activity in both indications, however, most of the drug’s value should be ascribed to the breast cancer program, which represents a huge commercial opportunity and better chances of approval.

As I previously wrote, the significance of the breast cancer trial is not only in the clinical activity of CR-011, but more importantly, the ability to identify patients who are likely to respond to the drug. By defining the right target population, Curagen could substantially improve chances of approval, shorten development time and enjoy high market acceptance. (more…)

This year’s ASCO was packed with promising early stage trials, but very few positive late stage trials with an impact on medical practice. The two most important practice changing trials were phase III studies for Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Alimta and Roche’s (RHHBY.PK) Herceptin. These drugs are likely to enjoy a boost in revenues starting from next year, as both demonstrated impressive survival prolongation in lung and gastric cancer patients, respectively. The studies also underscore the paradigm shift in the industry towards personalized medicine, where a drug is given only to patients who have a high likelihood of deriving benefit. This article will focus on Alimta, which was, in my opinion the winner of ASCO 2009. (more…)

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Seattle Genetics – Another step towards approval

Seattle Genetics (SGEN) will present results from a phase I trial of SGN-35 in two rare blood cancers. This agent is important not only because it represents Seattle Genetics’ first opportunity for commercial revenue, but also because it serves as a proof of concept for the company’s antibody- drug conjugate (ADC) technology. The drug already generated impressive data when given every three weeks, and this year it will probably show even stronger activity in a weekly regimen. The company wanted to use a more frequent dosing in order to increase the overall amount of SGN-35 it can give and see whether it leads to higher efficacy without increasing side effects.

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The ASCO annual meeting, one of the most important events in the pharmaceutical industry will take place in Orlando next weekend. With over 4,000 abstracts to be presented this year, separating the wheat from the chaff is difficult, but below is an incomplete list of intriguing trials that deserve investors’ attention.

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Two weeks ago, Micromet (MITI) hosted its annual R&D day, where it discussed plans for 2009 and beyond. The meeting provided plenty of information regarding the company’s technology and drug candidates, but more importantly, it served as an appetizer for next month’s EHA meeting. As a reminder, Micromet is expected to present data from 2 trials evaluating its lead agent, blinatumomab (MT103), in two forms of blood cancer: Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) and Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL).

During the R&D day, the company (intentionally and unintentionally) shared some previously undisclosed results from the trials. The new information, which includes impressive efficacy signals from both studies, further solidifies blinatumomab’s position as one of the most promising investigational agents in oncology. Based on its spectacular performance, blinatumomab has a high chance of getting approved as soon as 2012.

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